Analyzing 2023-24 NHL Regular Season Points Totals and Presidents' Trophy Odds
It’s that time of year again! The skates have hit the ice, preseason pucks are flying and the NHL is ready for its first puck drop of the 2023-24 season. After the Bruins’ record-setting campaign and first-round exit, the Vegas Golden Knights hoisting the Stanley Cup and plenty more thrilling storylines last year, what’s in store for this upcoming season?
Dimers will be by your side for every minute of the action with our Stanley Cup Odds, our best NHL bets today, goalscorer props and so much more, all available to you completely free. There’s nothing we love more than betting on sports and we’re here to guide you through this season with all of our free sports picks.
Today, we’re looking at some NHL futures odds, particularly in the season-long points market. Using our A.I. model’s cutting-edge predictive power, we’ll compare our in-house projections to the lines on the books to find some value before the season gets underway and the hierarchy of the NHL landscape takes shape.
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How Do Points Work in the NHL?
If you’re not familiar, the NHL uses a points system to determine its league standings. Teams are awarded a certain number of points based on the result of each game. Two points are awarded for a win, one point for an Overtime or shootout loss and zero points for a loss in regulation. Prior to the 2005 NHL lockout, games could end in ties, however, once that was changed, the points system was changed to account for games going to overtime. The team with the most points at the end of the season wins the Presidents’ Trophy.
For this analysis, we’ll be using the lines and odds available on DraftKings, where you can get yourself $200 in bonus bets and a no-sweat same-game parlay wager every day this season, all for betting just your first $5.
If you don’t have DraftKings Sportsbook in your state, be sure to compare the lines on the best books available to you in our Best Sports Betting Sites section to maximize your value.
Analyzing NHL Point Totals
| TEAM | PTS PROJECTIONS | BOOK LINE | POINTS +/- | OVER ODDS | UNDER ODDS | PRES. TROPHY ODDS |
| Edmonton Oilers | 110.3 | 106.5 | 3.8 | -115 | -115 | +600 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 109.0 | 105.5 | 3.5 | -115 | -115 | +800 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 108.7 | 103.5 | 5.2 | -115 | -115 | +1200 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 107.8 | 109.5 | -1.7 | -110 | -120 | +450 |
| New York Rangers | 107.3 | 103.5 | 3.8 | -125 | -105 | +1300 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 106.6 | 105.5 | 1.1 | -115 | -115 | +800 |
| Dallas Stars | 106.1 | 105.5 | 0.6 | -115 | -115 | +800 |
| New Jersey Devils | 105.2 | 105.5 | -0.3 | -115 | -115 | +800 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 101.7 | 99.5 | 2.2 | -105 | -125 | +2000 |
| Boston Bruins | 101.1 | 101.5 | -0.4 | -105 | -125 | +1600 |
| Florida Panthers | 100.3 | 99.5 | 0.8 | +100 | -130 | +2200 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 98.0 | 93.5 | 4.5 | -125 | +105 | +6000 |
| Minnesota Wild | 97.7 | 95.5 | 2.2 | -115 | -115 | +5000 |
| Seattle Kraken | 97.4 | 92.5 | 4.9 | -110 | -120 | +7500 |
| New York Islanders | 95.0 | 92.5 | 2.5 | -115 | -115 | +7500 |
| Calgary Flames | 94.8 | 95.5 | -0.7 | -115 | -115 | +5000 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 93.1 | 92.5 | 0.6 | -125 | -105 | +7500 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 92.8 | 97.5 | -4.7 | -125 | -105 | +3000 |
| Ottawa Senators | 90.4 | 92.5 | -2.1 | -125 | -105 | +6000 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 90.1 | 92.5 | -2.4 | -115 | -115 | +8000 |
| Nashville Predators | 89.8 | 86.5 | 3.3 | -120 | -110 | +13000 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 89.4 | 90.5 | -1.1 | -115 | -115 | +13000 |
| St. Louis Blues | 86.3 | 83.5 | 2.8 | -110 | -120 | +20000 |
| Washington Capitals | 84.4 | 83.5 | 0.9 | -115 | -115 | +20000 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 80.6 | 85.5 | -4.9 | -125 | -105 | +15000 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 74.7 | 75.5 | -0.8 | +100 | -130 | +50000 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 72.2 | 79.5 | -7.3 | -115 | -115 | +50000 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 72.0 | 70.5 | 1.5 | -125 | -105 | +50000 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 69.3 | 71.5 | -2.2 | -115 | -115 | +50000 |
| San Jose Sharks | 66.8 | 66.5 | 0.3 | -110 | -120 | +50000 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 66.5 | 72.5 | -6.0 | -125 | -105 | +50000 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 63.9 | 70.5 | -6.6 | -115 | -115 | +50000 |
*Sorted by Points Projection*
Best Value Overs
Vegas Golden Knights (103.5)
Right off the bat, we can see that our model projects the Vegas Golden Knights for the largest Over differential compared to the line set on the books at 5.2. DimersBOT projects the reigning champs for 108.7 points, the second-highest total per our model, while DraftKings has their line set at 103.5. Additionally, we can see that with the line set at -115 each way, there’s solid value in the Over as the books see this one as a toss-up. Returning their core lineup and looking to make a back-to-back run, Vegas should regularly flirt with the top of the overall standings this season. Even more interesting, they have the fourth-best odds for the Presidents’ Trophy at +1200, though our model projects them for just .3 wins behind the leader (Colorado at 109.0).
Seattle Kraken (92.5)
One expansion team follows another! The Seattle Kraken have quickly made a name for themselves after entering the league in 2021. They upset last season’s defending Stanley Cup champions in their first-ever playoff appearance before falling to the Dallas Stars in seven. Not only do the Kraken get the second-highest positive point differential according to our model at 4.9, but they’re one of the only teams whose odds are outright better (for us) to the Over than the odds for the Under. At -110, the Over gets favorable odds with a projection to back it up.
Los Angeles Kings (99.5)
A team truly in win-now mode, the Los Angeles Kings get a slim edge in our model’s points projections, with DimersBOT predicting a 2.2 point total higher than the 99.5 on the books. That’s not as big of a margin as several other teams as you can see in the table above, however, their odds to go over are nearly even money. At -105, this is one of the best raw values on the board based on the odds alone. They even make a sneaky contender for the Presidents’ Trophy at +2000.
Best Value Unders
Arizona Coyotes (79.5)
While not projected to be the worst team in the NHL, our model has no love for the Arizona Coyotes. While looking for a permanent arena and coming off a 70-point season, the Coyotes have made improvements to their roster with the additions of Jason Zucker and Nick Bjugstad, as well as draft pick Logan Cooley, among others. However, DimersBOT anticipates it will take some time for this team to click and find its groove and isn’t buying a major improvement this season. They have the largest negative point differential and with the book setting the line at -115 each way, the Under looks like the play for the ‘Yotes.
Columbus Blue Jackets (72.5)
Now for a team our model *does* project to be just about the worst in the NHL. That honor technically goes to the Anaheim Ducks (63.9 projected points), the value on the Columbus Blue Jackets is much better. We’re predicting the Blue Jackets to top out at 66.5 points, a full six points lower than their line on the books. Their Under is set at -105, another bet at nearly even money. Though they have many talented players, it’s looking like an uphill battle for Columbus this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins (97.5)
Let’s switch gears to close out this article with a fade on a team that should still be good, just not as good as the books say they will be. The Pittsburgh Penguins are eager to return to the postseason after they came up just a single point shy last year. They acquired last year’s Norris Trophy winner and elite defenseman Erik Karlsson as a key move to reach that goal. And while they may very well achieve that goal, our model is still projecting the under on their points total with a point total of 92.8. At a -4.7 point differential, the odds of -105 look too good to pass up on the Penguins.
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