Oppenheimer, the second-highest grossing R-rated film, might hit a billion

I saw Oppenheimer three times this summer, twice in IMAX. I’m not a Christopher Nolan stan–in fact I don’t think I’ve seen any of his other films. I just liked the movie that much. Because it came out the same weekend as Barbie, initial projections for the movie were in the modest-but-good range. Both Barbie and Oppenheimer ended up blowing way past their expected box office results, thanks in part to the delightfully weird Barbenheimer internet phenomenon. Now Oppenheimer has earned $926 million over ten weeks of release. That’s quite a feat for a three hour movie that is mostly physicists talking to each other about nuclear fission. It’s now the third-highest grossing movie of the year. I don’t think anyone expected that.

Does Christopher Nolan‘s “Oppenheimer” have enough heat to hit $1 billion globally? At one point, this milestone may have sounded entirely improbable for a three-hour historical drama that mostly depicts scientists talking about theoretical physics.

But sure enough, the biopic starring Cillian Murphy as the so-called father of the atomic bomb has become a full-fledged blockbuster with a fighting chance at joining the billion-dollar club. After 10 weeks of release, “Oppenheimer” has earned a staggering $926 million at the worldwide box office. It’s the third-highest grossing movie of the year, far surpassing big-budget tentpoles like Marvel’s “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” ($845 million), the 10th “Fast and Furious” movie ($704 million) and “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” ($576 million).

To reach $1 billion, “Oppenheimer” needs to generate another $74 million worldwide. Though not impossible (it has repeatedly put theatrical expectations to shame, so why stop now?), this would require people to keep showing up for “Oppenheimer” over several more weeks. Global ticket sales have been declining by roughly 20% in recent weeks, better than most films at similar points in their theatrical cycles. The challenge is that “Oppenheimer” has mostly run out of steam in North America — as expected, after two enthusiastic months on the big screen — so international audiences will be key in carrying the movie to ultimate box office glory. Overseas, it’s still reliably selling tickets in China, Italy and Germany.

For box office experts, “Oppenheimer” is a film without many useful comparisons. It’s the second-highest grossing R-rated film in history, behind 2019’s “Joker” ($1.07 billion), and has played less like a grim historical biopic and more like an all-audience superhero epic. That’s thanks to Nolan’s status as a name brand, as well as his power to encourage fans to seek out the film in Imax, where it has earned $181 million.

[From Variety]

I think this movie has done so well for all the reasons Variety lists: Christopher Nolan’s name, superhero fatigue, and the higher ticket price of IMAX. But the movie is just very good–the script has a momentum that never flags, Cillian Murphy is amazing, the cast is stacked, the cinematography is beautiful. I think word of mouth has counted for a lot of its success. I don’t know if it will break a billion dollars, but even if it hasn’t, Oppenheimer is a resounding success.

I bet the execs at Warner Brothers regret alienating Nolan now. Back during the dark days of 2020 Nolan was mad that WB was just dumping content onto streaming services instead of holding out for cinematic releases when theaters couldn’t reopen safely. Some of what Nolan said was out of touch, but some of it was legitimate. When Warner Bros put everything on streaming, creatives like actors and writers lost out on back-end revenue and residuals, and WB apparently didn’t notify them of these decisions. WB could have been profiting from both Barbie and Oppenheimer this summer! Instead Nolan is now at Universal. I understand why the studios decided not to hold out for theatrical releases during the pandemic and I think it was overall the right choice. But it also reminds me of the tensions between management and creative personnel that boiled over this summer with the strikes.

PS: I highly recommend the biography the movie is based on, American Prometheus, which is an incredible work of nonfiction that took the authors 25 years to research and write.

Photos credit: Avalon.red, Cover Images and via Instagram

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